The Next 2008?

Words I like: “The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time it’s different.”
- Sir John Templeton

Pablo’s Perspective:

Everyone thinks this time is different — but bubbles never announce themselves. They just pop.

Back in 2001, every company with “.com” in the name was a rocket ship… until they weren’t. Cisco traded at 472x earnings and was “too big to fail.” When the bubble burst, tech stocks dropped 78%. Two decades later, Cisco still hasn’t recovered.

Fast forward to now:

• The Nasdaq trades at 35x earnings.

• The Buffett Indicator sits at 217% (aka “playing with fire”).

• AI stocks are eating up 60% of venture capital — same as dot-coms before they crashed.

And here’s where it hits home..

Real estate got a turbo-boost on ultra-cheap money and sky-high expectations. But with rates higher, many markets are cooling or sliding. Some places are already seeing 10-20 % price drops.

This doesn’t mean we’re necessarily headed for a crash everywhere but the old playbook (“buy, hold, wait for appreciation”) is no longer enough. The investor who focuses on cash flow, owns with control, stays liquid, and understands local fundamentals will be the one who comes out ahead.

Because when the froth fades, only the real business survives.

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Did you know? 💡
Every major bubble — dot-com, housing, crypto — had one thing in common: people stopped caring about fundamentals.
They always matter in the end.

-Pablo 

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